Weekly Reports

Research reports analyzing long-term structural and fundamental trends. Each report includes a detailed commodity outlook and in-depth analysis about a relevant topic for that week.

Weekly Newsletter Username & Password

Aug 14, 12:54 pm | Weekly Reports

Beginning with tomorrow’s release, subscribers must enter their username and password to view the Weekly Newsletter. If you need (or have forgotten) your credentials, simply email sales@agresource.com or call 312-408-0045 to obtain your information.

Weekly Newsletter Correction

Jul 20, 2:27 pm | Weekly Reports

Sirs and Ms:

There was a big error in the corn S&D scenario table that was published in yesterday’s Weekly Newsletter.

The spreadsheet we were using was importing last year’s beginning stocks (2016/17 = 1,737 Mil Bu)

It was supposed to import this year’s beginning stocks (2017/18 = 2,370 Mil Bu from the USDA’s Jul WASDE).

That’s an increase of 633 Mil Bu in supply.

Below is the correct version of the corn yield scenario table (on page 3 in last night’s report):

 
2017/18
2017/18
2017/18
2017/18
2017/18
2017/18
CORN
156.0 Bu
158.4 Bu
160.8 Bu
163.2 Bu
165.6 Bu
168.0 Bu
 
 Scenario
Scenario
Scenario
Scenario
Scenario
Scenario
Mln Acres, Bushels
Area Planted
90.9
90.9
90.9
90.9
90.9
90.9
Abandonment
9.5%
9.0%
9.0%
8.7%
8.7%
8.1%
Area Harvested
82.3
82.7
82.7
83.0
83.0
83.5
Yield
156.0
158.4
160.8
163.2
165.6
168.0
Yield as % of “Trend”
-8.7%
-7.3%
-5.9%
-4.5%
-3.1%
-1.7%
Production
12,835
13,105
13,305
13,545
13,745
14,025
Beginning Stocks
2,370
2,370
2,370
2,370
2,370
2,370
Imports
100
90
75
70
60
55
   Supply, Total
15,305
15,565
15,750
15,985
16,175
16,450
Feed and Residual
5,085
5,155
5,205
5,275
5,325
5,405
Food, Seed, Industrial
6,885
6,885
6,915
6,925
6,930
6,940
   Ethanol & By-products 1/
5,425
5,425
5,450
5,450
5,450
5,450
   Food, Other Industrial 2/
1,430
1,430
1,435
1,455
1,450
1,460
   Seed
31
31
31
30
30
30
   Domestic, Total
11,970
12,040
12,120
12,200
12,255
12,345
Exports
1,750
1,760
1,785
1,810
1,835
1,860
   Use, Total
13,720
13,800
13,905
14,010
14,090
14,205
Ending Stocks
1,585
1,765
1,845
1,975
2,085
2,245
Ending Stocks/Use
11.6%
12.8%
13.3%
14.1%
14.8%
15.8%
Crop Insure Initial Price ($/Bu)
3.96
3.96
3.96
3.96
3.96
3.96
Avg. Farm Price ($/Bu) 3/
5.25
4.75
4.55
4.25
4.05
3.75
Fut-Based Frcst ($/Bu) 4/
3.75
3.75
3.75
3.75
3.75
3.75
August HIGH CZ17 Fut (S/Bu) 5/
5.20
4.85
4.65
4.50
4.35
4.15
August LOW CZ17 Fut ($/Bu) 6/
4.50
4.25
4.10
3.85
3.65
3.60
             
Note: Totals may not add due to rounding.
Marketing year beginning September 1.
1/Corn used to produce ethanol and by-products including  distillers’
grains, corn gluten feed, corn gluten meal and corn oil.
2/Mostly for the production of sweeteners and starch.
3/Marketing-year weighted average price received by farmers.
4/ Based on deferred futures prices on Jul 18.
5/ Since Jul WASDE (Jul 12) the high of CZ17 has been $4.17.
6/ Since Jul WASDE (Jul 12) the low of CZ17 has been $3.82.