Sunday Commentary

Rain Still Needed in the East; But Its All About The Finish – Just Too Cool for FH September

Aug 27, 12:57 pm |

** AgResource Pre Opening Sunday Market Calls: Soybeans 1-3 cents higher, corn steady to 1 cent higher with wheat called steady to 2 cents higher.

** Sunday Weather & Market Comment Discussion: Opening week CBOT calls are steady to higher. There is still around 22-23% of the Midwest that is in rather dire need of rain, but as the calendar turns to September, the market’s focus will shift temperatures and whether crops are able to reach full maturity? The graphic below reflects that August of 2017 will rate as being the 7th coolest since weather records started being kept in 1895. The coolness  helped crops withstand late July/first half of August dryness, but there are other implications that are important such as soyoil yield of soybeans and whether 2nd and 3rd seeded corn in the E Midwest will be able to reach maturity amid the sharp fall in degree growing days (DGDs)? It’s a rush to the finish. 

 The Central US weather forecast maintains this cool to cold temperature profile into the first 10 days of September. There is the chance of 30’s in the Upper Midwest in the 9-15 day period. 

** August 1-31 Average Temperature Departure:

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The weekly CoT report showed that funds are net short 69,000 contracts of Chi wheat, 23,000 contracts of soybeans, and 17,000 contracts of corn. Funds were holding a larger wheat and soybean short than traders expected.  

  ARC looks for US crop conditions to be little changed on Monday. However, the Farm Journal corn yield of 167 BPA and soybean yield of 48.5 BPA were deemed as supportive. It’s the time of the year for seasonal lows and ARC would be protective of any profits on net short positions.

** Central US Weather Pattern Discussion; The GFS & EU forecast models are in good agreement for the next 10 days. The forecast is cool to cold with a broad Ridge west and Trough east type of North American weather pattern. The NW upper air flow thru the Central US will curtail E Midwest US rain chances following a frontal pass early this week. The graphic depicts the GFS rainfall totals into Sept 6th. Notice the mostly dry weather profile for the W Midwest with rains of .1-.7” for the E Midwest. Delta and Gulf State rains will be heavy amid the remains of Harvey. Harvest here will be halted or dramatically slowed. There is a chance of 30’s across the N Midwest beyond Sept 9th. The Aug 27-Sept 10th coolness will further retard the US corn and soybean crop maturation progress.

** GFS 10 Day Rainfall Forecast and August 27- Sept 11th Temp Departures:

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