Markets Sag on Crop Ratings

Aug 29, 6:57 am |

AgResource Daily Farm Marketing Advice for Tuesday: 1/ No new advice.    

6:30 AM CDT CBOT Prices: Nov soybeans are down 5.75 cents at $9.355, Dec corn is down 2.75 cents at $3.4825 while Dec Chi wheat is down 4.0 cents at $4.24.

Good Morning! Grain and soy futures this AM are weaker, again in moderate volume, following better soy crop ratings in NASS’s weekly release, and as the EU and GFS models are a bit warmer across the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest in the first 10 days of September. 28,000 contracts of Dec corn, 14,500 contracts of Nov beans and 8,000 contracts of Dec CME wheat changed hands so far. Crude is up .10/barrel, EU milling wheat futures have followed the US to modest losses, Malaysian palm oil is down 25 ringgits and the US dollar is down sharply again, posting yet new lows for the move.  

  Bean GD/EX ratings through last Sunday improved 1%, with conditions-based yield models also marginally higher, and the general consensus seems to have centered on a corn yield of 165-168 Bu/Acre and bean yield of 47-49 Bu/Acre, which is up slightly from trade guesses in late July/early August. The US will no doubt avoid major losses, save for some areas of the Plains, amid relatively improved growing conditions in August.

  Still, we caution that the risk of below normal temps in September is intact, and the Delta’s forecast remains rather wet into early next week.

  The remnants of hurricane Harvey will travel northwards in the next 4-5 days, tracing a path along the MS River. Rainfall accumulation through Sat/Sun is projected as high as 5-9” in LA, AR, MS, W TN and far W KY. Quality issues will be only regional, but a fairly lengthy delay in harvesting there is anticipated. Just 25% of beans in AR were gathered as of Sunday.

  The remainder of the Central US will be dry and cool throughout the next 10 days. Overnight lows are pegged in the 40s across the Dakotas, MN and WI Sep 5-8 (with a few days in the upper 30s across Southern Canada) but a hard frost is so far not indicated. A slight warming of temps is forecast thereafter.

  Serbia on Monday cuts its corn crop estimate 3.5 MMTs (nearly 50%) to just 4.5 MMTs. This by itself is not overly newsworthy, but neighboring countries Romania, Bulgaria and Ukraine have experienced very similar growing conditions since early summer. Rainfall in Ukraine since July 1st rests at just 15-80% of normal, with much of E Ukraine seeing just 15-30%. Ukraine’s cash corn market shows no sign of major changes in crop size, but neither is Ukrainian corn overly cheap compared to US origin.

  South American basis levels continue to inch higher, with Argentine corn now offered 40 cents over futures for nearby arrival (vs. negative basis just weeks ago). Brazilian corn is still offered at parity with US origin. Argentine soy basis also continues to rise, with very few soy offers noted in South American beyond October. The US will return as the world’s dominant soy exporter in early autumn through Feb/Mar of 2018. 

  Egypt is seeking wheat for early Oct shipment, but otherwise news is lacking – and enthusiasm from both the bulls and the bears will be lacking until NASS’s Sep crop report.

CBOT Mixed To Start Week; Central US Coolness To Persist into Mid September

Aug 28, 6:35 am |

** 6:30 AM CDT CBOT Prices: Nov soybeans are unchanged at $9.445, Dec corn is down .75 of a cent at $3.5275 while Dec Chi wheat is down 4.25 cents at $4.31.

 ** AgResource AM Grain & Oilseed Comment: Good Morning! Moderate volume and mixed has been the theme of CBOT trade to start the week. 1st notice day looms for September futures while traders debate the impact on US and world weather?  More than 17,000 contracts of CBOT December corn, more than 18,000 contracts of November soybeans, and more than 10,000 contracts of December Chi wheat have changed hands overnight. Friday’s CBOT open interest data showed a decline of 17,151 contracts of wheat and 14,011 contracts of soybeans, while corn open interest grew a modest 632 contracts.

  The US dollar has fallen sharply with its testing key chart based support against $.92. A close below this level would produce a more serious decline as the euro approaches $1.20. The value of the US dollar will be watched closely this week by raw material traders for its influence on trade.

  Harvey has produced incredible amounts of rain across Houston and the coastal areas of SE Texas. Heavy rains will also fall on LA where corn/soybean crop harvest has started. According to NASS, LA was to harvest 88 Mil Bu of corn and 67 Mil Bu of soybeans in 2017. The rains will slow the LA harvest, but it’s uncertain the extent of any crop production/crop quality losses.

E Australian wheat fields have endured another frost/freeze on Sunday and this morning with lows ranging down to the upper 20’s to the lower 30’s. A similar frost was noted about a week ago. Agronomists are more worried this time as the cold pushed north into Queensland. Also, mostly dry weather is forecast for Aussie wheat for another 10 days.

 Stats Canada will be releasing their 2017 Crop Estimates on Thursday. The report will help define the damage that drought produced since late June. ARC looks for a wheat crop of around 24 MMTs and canola crop of 18.5 MMTs. 

 August will end with Central US temps being at their coolest levels since 2004, and the 7th coolest since records started being kept in 1895. The chill has been helpful to crops that were stressed by early August dryness. However, questions are now developing about soyoil yield of soybeans and whether some of the replanted corn can reach maturity ahead of a frost/freeze?

 Unfortunately, the Central US forecast offers a continued cool temp trend during the first half of September with virtually no rain for the N Plains and the W Midwest with only lite rains for the E Midwest early this week. The forecast models have been toying with bringing 30’s into the N Plains and Midwest after Sept 8th. This will be closely monitored by producers/traders.

 US weekly export inspections are estimated in a range of; 18-21 Mil Bu of wheat, 21-26 Mil Bu of soybeans, and 20-24 Mil Bu of corn. US soybean loadings are picking up as Brazilian export offers are scant.

 Although there is still 22% of the Midwest that is in need of rain, the markets’ focus shifts to crop maturity and 1st frost dates on Sept 1st. The chill of August and early September places more vulnerability on Central US row crops this year. This is no place to turn bearish of soy, corn or wheat.

** 15 Day Temperature Departures: 

 

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Pro Farmer Corn Yield Results Awaited; Mixed Overnight CBOT Trade in Thin Volume

Aug 25, 6:53 am |

** 6:30 AM CDT CBOT Prices: Nov soybeans are down 2.25 cents at $9.4425, Dec corn is down 1.0 cent at $3.5525 while Sept Chi wheat is up 1.50 cents at $4.105.

** AgResource AM Grain & Oilseed Comment: Good Morning! Low volume and mixed has been the overnight CBOT trade with corn, soybeans and wheat trading either side of unchanged. The Farm Journal Tour held their wrap up gathering, but the leadership did not release their final US corn yield estimate. This data point should be available sometime today.

 Thursday’s CBOT open interest data showed corn gaining a 2,998 contracts and soybeans 7,370 contracts while, with Chi wheat off 361 contracts. There has been a huge ownership change at the CBOT post the USDA August crop report with end users/importers taking on large market length. Funds have flipped from being large net longs to large net shorts. The degree of their short position will be reveled in this afternoon’s Weekly Commitment of Trader’s report. 

  The Jackson Hole meeting of world Central Bankers will be ongoing today with key speeches from US Fed Bank head Yellen and EU head Dragi. The US dollar is slightly weaker this AM and holding on the index at $93.00.

   The Farm Journal Tour did release their final IA corn yield estimate of 179.8 BPA vs 188.2 BPA last year, and the 3 year average of 182.4 BPA. Soybean pod counts were low at 1,093 pods compared to 1,224 last year and 1,206 average.  Poor soybean pod counts have been a consistent theme of the FJ Tour with participants reporting far fewer 4 bean pods and many more 2 and 3 bean pods. US soybean pod weights have been record high in recent years which has produced the record yields. The wet spring and summer dryness seems to have adversely impacted Midwest soybean plant development.    

  Hurricane Harvey will make landfall as a strong category 3 storm near Corpus Christi, TX and meander along the coast due to the influence of a high pressure Ridge to the north and produce copious amounts of rainfall. Rains of 12-24” along with a 5-9” storm surge will cause widespread flooding. The storm will slowly push NE early next week into LA and maintain heavy rains and cause worry for mature corn and soybean crops.

   The Midwest forecast is generally dry with cool temperatures. Any rain that looks to fall will be across the NW Midwest with just limited amounts for the E Midwest and Delta. For the 25-30% of the Midwest that received less than .4” of rain this week, crop stress will be increasing amid the deepening dryness. This is not the kind of finish that Midwest crops have enjoyed in the past few years. The good news is that temps will be cooler than normal with highs in the 70’s to the lower 80’s. Dry conditions persist into mid September. 

  China imported a record 10.08 MMTs of soybeans in July with Brazil supplying 7.6 MMTs, Argentina 1.47 MMTs and the US 500,000 MTs. China also imported a large 913,583 MMTs of corn with the US and Ukraine the big suppliers.

  News into the early Midwest harvest will be mostly based on weather and crop condition ratings. China has a large amount of forward import coverage to take in soybeans, but it will take the September USDA crop report to confirm that seasonal bottoms are now being forged. Soybeans hold more upside than corn.

CBOT Firmer on Pro Farmer and Improved US Soybean Export Demand

Aug 24, 7:03 am |

** 6:30 AM CDT CBOT Prices: Nov soybeans are up 3.50 cents at $9.415, Dec corn is up .25 of a cent at $3.56 while Sept Chi wheat is up 1.50 cents at $4.0475.

 ** AgResource AM Grain & Oilseed Comment: Good Morning! Mixed to mostly higher has been the overnight CBOT trade with corn, soybeans and wheat trading either side of unchanged. Rallies nor breaks have been able to be sustained in recent days as end users offer support below the market while funds sell rallies and are adding to their growing net short position.

  Wednesday’s market performance was disappointing, following the news of the US applying Biodiesel duties against Argentina and Indonesia. The complexity of the US biodiesel programs and long rumored actions produced a “sell the fact” kind of market reaction. Yet, the ending of biodiesel imports will have a cash pull on the marketplace with time. It’s a really big deal, it’s just that the cash vegoil market will have to lead the bullish charge.

  Wednesday’s CBOT open interest data showed corn gaining a huge 27,839 contracts, with Chi wheat off 1,862 contracts while soybeans were up 6,563 contracts. KC wheat open interest gained a big 5,953 contracts. Funds have piled into new sizeable net short corn/KC wheat/soybean positions in Wednesday’s trade. This makes the market vulnerable to a rally effort today.

  The Jackson Hole meeting of world Central Bankers will be starting today.  Clues on future EU and US Central Bank policy will be key. The US dollar is holding just above longer term support noted at $.925 on the index. A fall below this level would produce a deeper decline of the US greenback.  

  The Farm Journal Crop Tour estimated the IL corn yield at 180.7 BPA, well down from the 3 year average of 187.4 BPA. IL soybean pod counts were 1,231 vs 1,269 3 year average. The IL data argues for a below trend corn/soy yield.

  In W IA, the Farm Journal Tour pegged the corn yield at 181.2 BPA compared to a 3 year average of 175.9 BPA. Pod counts were disappointing averaging 1,092 vs the 3 year average of 1,238. The Tour heads into E IA today.

  Pro Farmer will continue its tour through IA today and meet in Rochester MN this afternoon to tally/announce their final Midwest yields. ARC notes that the one consistent factor of the FJ Tour has been the disappointing and below the 3 year average in soybean pod counts. The data argues for September US soybean yield of 46.5-48.5 BPA. ARC holds to our US soybean yield of 47.0 BPA. Such a yield would pull 2017/18 US soybean end stocks to 300 Mil Bu or below.   Soon to be Hurricane Harvey will make landfall across the Texas Coastline early next week. Harvey will then take a slow meandering path to the NE and produce heavy rains across LA/MS which will impact the row crop harvest. The forecast models do not offer much moisture for the E Midwest for the next 10-12 days with some of the longer range models forecasting ongoing dryness into mid September. Temps will be cool with highs in the 70’s and 80’s.

  There are no rains in sight for E Australian wheat areas for another 10 days with some light rains of .1-.5” for the west.

  The Farm Journal Crop data is suggesting that the US has a good, but not great corn and soybean crop.  US soybean yields are far more suspect that corn.

 

 

US Duties on Biodiesel Imports; Limited Rains for E Midwest for 10-12 Days

Aug 23, 7:10 am |

** 6:30 AM CDT CBOT Prices: Nov soybeans are up 5.25 cents at $9.4275, Dec corn is up .50 of a cent at $3.695 while Sept Chi wheat is up 1.25 cents at $4.035.

 ** AgResource AM Grain & Oilseed Comment: Good Morning! CBOT prices have been firm in soybeans and steady in the grains following the announcement that the National Biodiesel Board (NBB) has won a US preliminary countervailing duty determination against Argentine and Indonesia biodiesel producers/exporters that is retroactive to May. The US duty amounts to 50.3-64.2% for Argentine and 41-68% for Indonesian biodiesel imported into the US.

  In 2016, Argentina and Indonesia exported 546 Mil gallons of biodiesel to the US (3,822 Mil pounds of soyoil or other vegoils or animal fats). The just enacted US duties are prohibitive for imports from Argentina/Indonesia and this supply of vegoils (to make biodiesel) must come from other sources, mainly additional domestic demand for US soyoil. Canadian canola prices are too high, but US soybeans crushed in Europe with soyoil exported back to the US would be another source of vegoil supply.

  In July, the EPA and the Trump Administration decided to leave the ethanol and biodiesel mandates largely untouched from the November Obama Administration release at 2.1 Bil gallons for 2018. This additional 100 Mil pounds of demand and these new import duties will push soyoil values higher. 

The initial soyoil price target of some well-placed commercial traders is between 37-39 cents with an ultimate upside target closer to 42-45 cents as the demand pull on supply is felt. This will spur soyoil/soymeal spreading today and likely raise the 2017/18 US soybean crush estimate by 20-30 Mil Bu. The NBB news is bullish vegoils and soybeans longer term.  

 The Farm Journal Crop Tour reported their IN and NE survey results overnight. The NE leg reported a corn yield of 165.4 BPA on corn which compares to the 3 year average of 162.5 BPA with soybean pod counts of 1,131 vs 1,182. In IN, the tour reported a corn yield of 171.2 BPA vs the 3 year average of 167.1, and soybean pod counts of 1,164 against the 3 year average of 1,169 pods.   

  The FJ Crop Tour will be heading to IL and IA today before convening in Rochester MN on Thursday to announce their results.

  Outside of a sliver of Central IL, the rainfall results across the E Midwest was disappointing with most areas seeing just .1-.7”. The W Midwest received much better rains of .6-2.50” with locally heavier amounts on good coverage.

  The forecast models do not offer much moisture for the E Midwest for the next 10-12 days with some of the longer range models forecasting continued dryness into mid September. The saving grace is that temps will not be hot with highs ranging from the mid 70’s to mid 80’s. Unlike recent years, it does not appear that the E Midwest will see a needed finishing rain.

  The W Midwest has a chance of rain across MN and W IA in the next 36 hours with totals of .25-1.50”. The N Plains will be mostly dry into September 1.

  There are no rains in sight for Australian wheat areas for another 10 days.

  Open interest has surged as funds have added to a growing net short position and the industry maintains the “great corn/soybean yield debate”.   

CBOT Tries Recovery Overnight on Bottom Picking

Aug 22, 7:06 am |

** 6:30 AM CDT CBOT Prices: Nov soybeans are up 3.00 cents at $9.3925, Dec corn is up 1.25 cents at $3.6425 while Sept Chi wheat is up 2.0 cents at $4.115.

 ** AgResource AM Grain & Oilseed Comment: Good Morning! It’s Tuesday and following the lashing that the CBOT markets have taken since the August 11th USDA report, the overnight trade has recovered amid some bottom picking by speculators. As such, CBOT values are slightly higher this AM.

  The volume of overnight trade has been active with over 23,000 contracts of December corn, over 22,000 contracts of November soybeans, and 8,600 contracts of December Chi wheat changing hands.

  CBOT open interest on Monday surged 10,412 contracts in corn and 11,506 contracts in soybeans, while Chi wheat was up 1,087 contracts.

  The Pro Farmer Crop Tour released their OH and SD yield results on Monday PM. The OH corn yield was pegged at 164.6 BPA vs a 3 year average of 159.8 while the SD corn yield as 147.9 BPA vs the 3 year average of 156.1 BPA. The OH corn yield was up 2.8% from the average while the SD was down 5%.

  The average OH soybean pod count was 1,107 vs the 3 year average of 1,174, down 6% while the South Dakota count was 899.6 pods vs 1,027.8, or down 12%. The soy pod counts are only crude measures of yield potential, but tour participants were disappointed by the small plant size and lack of nodes.

  Traders are watching the field reports of pod counts since most analysts do not expect ’17 US soybean yields to reach above trend this year at 48 BPA, compared to USDA’s forecast of 49.4 BPA. The Tour reported the stage of SD/OH soy development at nearly 5, where the plant is near reproductive maturity.

  Rains fell across IL and N IN overnight with totals of .25-1.00” with a thin line of heavier rain of 1-2.50” from Quincy to Danville. Lite showers are still falling and much of IL will receive rainfall of around .50-.75”. Lite rains are noted across IN/OH with most totals less than .50” – so far.

  After today, the forecast calls for mostly dry and cool weather conditions across the Midwest and N Plains. Tropical storm Harvey is expected to find a second life and make landfall across the TX coastline as modest hurricane.  This could produce heavy rains across LA, MS and the Delta which will slow harvest operations. The next chance of meaningful Midwest rain is not offered until late in the 11-15 day period, so a general drying trend is offered into early September. Another few good rains will be desired in early September.

  Russia has a monster wheat crop over 80 MMTs, but it lacks he internal logistical infrastructure or export capacity to move it to the world market. Already railway wagons are all spoken for through November and newly harvested wheat is being stored on the ground. Russia looks to export 30-31 MMTs of wheat in 2017/18 with there being only 1 rail line into Novo, their primary export port. This makes crop losses in the US, Australia and Canada more important with Australian wheat crop needing rain again in early September.

  US crop conditions were at trade expectations and it’s now more of market reality in terms of US corn/soy yield. ARC research argues that NASS was too high in the August survey and we hold to a 166 BPA corn/47 BPA soy yield.

IA Finally Enjoys Some Rainfall; CBOT Reacts With Lower Start To the Week

Aug 21, 6:41 am |

** 6:30 AM CDT CBOT Prices: Nov soybeans are down 6.00 cents at $9.3175, Dec corn is down 3.00 cents at $3.6275 while Sept Chi wheat is down 2.5 cents at $4.135.

 ** AgResource AM Grain & Oilseed Comment: Good Morning! The week has started out weaker at the CBOT with some needed rain falling across W and C IA overnight. A T-storm cluster formed late Sunday and produced isolated areas of heavy rainfall across W IA with some areas seeing as much as 5-7.00”. Most other IA areas have witnessed .5-2.00” of rainfall and after nearly 9 weeks of dryness, the entire state of IA will enjoy some needed rainfall relief. 

  The big question for traders and producers is; “How much yield benefit will corn and soybeans see at this late date?” Our only response is that soybean seed size will be enhanced while the rain likely falls too late to offer much benefit to corn. The rains would have been much more important 3 weeks ago, but IA producers will rejoice in the needed rainfall nonetheless. 

  The short term forecast models argue that the T storms over IA will be diminishing this AM and ending by midday. Eastern IA crops look to receive .25-1.00” of rain, while IL/IN/OH crops will have to endure another day of upper 80’s to lower 90’s before a cold front produces lite to moderate showers late today and Tuesday. Unfortunately, the opportunity for rain beyond Tuesday looks rather limited for the Midwest, but temperatures at least will be cool.

 Rainfall for IL/IN/OH/KY/TN look to range from .2-.8” with coverage pegged at no better than 50% of the area thru Tuesday. Large swaths of the E Midwest will be left wanting more rain after this frontal pass with the forecasts not offering much help into the opening days of September. The CBOT will be watching the locations/amounts of rain that fall across the E Midwest closely, but unfortunately, the dryness concern looks to worsen across the E Midwest.   The Farm Journal (Pro Farmer) Crop Tour will be starting today with the western leg starting out in Fishers, IN and the western leg in Grand Island, NE. The Tour will wind through 7 Midwest States with its results released on Rochester MN on Thursday. Tweets/photo’s from the FJ/PF Tour are likely to be felt in the marketplace for most of the week.

  US weekly export inspections for the week ending August 17th are estimated in a range of; 18-22 Mil Bu of wheat, 33-38 Mil Bu of corn, and 17-22 Mil Bu of soybeans. The soy export pace is really starting to pick up in the Gulf.

  Egypt is considering banning a cargo of Romanian wheat for poppy seeds. The potential rejection would not raise concerns like ergot since other suppliers will not have the same weed seed issue. A decision is expected on Tuesday.

  China’s Dalian corn, soybean and soymeal futures finished slightly lower overnight and have chosen not to follow Chicago’s losses. Soy crush margins are back in the black and end users are becoming more active in US purchases.

  Extreme dryness will continue across S Europe and the Eastern Black Sea which is hurting Ukraine/Russian corn crops. The forecast remains hot/dry for another 10 days and any rain after Sept 1 to be of limited assistance.

  Today will be a test of the bears to see if they can flex any might? Our bet is an early week CBOT low followed by a late week recovery effort.

CBOT Mixed in Overnight Trade; Midwest Weather Features One Rain Chance Before September

Aug 18, 7:21 am |

** 6:30 AM CDT CBOT Prices: Nov soybeans are down 1.25 cents at $9.3175, Dec corn is unchanged at $3.6425 while Sept Chi wheat is up 1.5 cents at $4.1525.

** AgResource AM Grain & Oilseed Comment: Good Morning! Mixed in active volume has been the overnight CBOT trade. Corn, soybeans and wheat have traded either side of unchanged in solid volume. Over 36,000 contracts of December corn, over 12,000 contracts of November soybeans and over 8,000 contracts of December Chi wheat have changed hands.

  CBOT open interest for Thursday showed a 15,524 contract gain in corn, a 5,661 contract gain in soybeans, and a 5,516 gain in wheat. ARC estimates that funds are now net short some 56,000 contracts of Chi wheat and net short nearly 60,000 contracts of corn. Funds are net flat or hold a modest net short in soybeans. The CFTC will release their Commitment of Traders report this PM.

  Some hefty US soybean sales could be reported this AM following the signing of framed purchase contracts for 3.8 MMTs of US soybeans on Wednesday.

  The two factors that will play into today’s marketplace will be the Central US weather forecast and the expectations for next week’s Pro Farmer Crop Tour. In particular, traders will be looking at Midwest soybean pod counts from Pro Farmer to validate or discredit the NASS August crop estimate. Producers report that IA and Central IL corn is maturing too fast with ears dropping as the plant lacks moisture. Lower ear weights and ear tipping is the result.

  Other than a few lite showers across IN/OH, the vast majority of the Midwest was dry overnight with warming temps. A dry trend is expected to persist through the weekend, before showers/storms break out across the W Midwest late Sunday and Monday. The EU model targets IA for rainfall of .25-1.50” with .2-.6” elsewhere. The E Midwest continues to rapidly dry down with only a few lite showers of .2-.6” slated to fall in the next 10 days. The map below reflects rainfall for the past week. Notice the widening dryness across IL, IN and OH. The 11-15 day period offers the return of a Ridge/Trough pattern and cool temps and mostly dry weather during the closing days of August and the  opening days of September. Thus, the rain for IA early next week is highly important for row crops.

 Brazilian soybean offers for export beyond mid September have evaporated amid strong demand. The US is in the catbird’s seat to fill world soybean demand into February.

  The risk in the market is that IA rains are disappointing (again) with the extended forecast then cool/dry into September. There is not enough rain across IL, IN and OH to support a bearish stance. Any weakness today should be short lived as seasonal lows are being formed. 

     ** 7 Day US Rainfall as a Percent of Normal:

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Rainfall for Heart of Midwest Misses Again; CBOT Adds Weather Premium to Soy/Corn

Aug 17, 6:53 am |

** 6:30 AM CDT CBOT Prices: Nov soybeans are up 8.75 cents at $9.34, Dec corn is up 1.0 cent at $3.675 while Sept Chi wheat is unchanged at $4.1925.

 ** AgResource AM Grain & Oilseed Comment: Good Morning! Mostly higher has been the CBOT trade with soybeans the big gainer as rain has missed the heart of the Midwest (again). There is one more chance of rain in the next 10 days, but clearly, this rain event is not going to solve the deepening dryness across IA, IL and portions of IN. The market is back to rebuilding some weather premium back into CBOT prices. 

  The volume of trade has been solid with more than 25,000 contracts of December corn, over 20,000 contracts of November soybeans, and over 16,000 contracts of December Chi wheat changing hands.

  CBOT open interest showed a 4,937 contract gain in corn, a 5,449 contract gain in soybeans, and a hefty 8,650 gain in wheat. ARC estimates that funds are now net short some 50,000 contracts of Chi wheat. It’s been a big 100,000 contract swing for funds from a net long 50,000 contracts to a net short 50,000 contracts, all in just around a month.

  FAS will be out with their weekly export sales report this AM. No big sales totals are expected, but some hefty US soybean sales could be reported in the next few days following the signing of framed purchase contracts for 3.8 MMTs of US soybeans on Wednesday.

      There were areas of heavy rains in the past 24 hours while the heart of the Midwest was short changed. Redwood Falls, MN received over 9.00” of rain while surrounding areas picked up 5-6”. Flooding is ongoing. Another area of heavy rain was the southern half of MO and S IL. But as the graphic suggests, the “fat portion” of the Midwest was largely missed leaving crop stress to build with warm temps over the next few days when highs reach into the 90’s.

  The forecast offers mostly dry and warming weather into the late weekend with another chance of showers/storms late Sunday and Monday with rain totals of .2-1.00” with mostly dry weather following into the 6-10 day period. The 11-15 day period features a NW Upper air flow with any rains confined to the Gulf States and the return of cooler than normal temperatures for the Midwest.

  NOAA will be out this AM with their long range forecasts for the autumn.

  Reuters is reporting that N Brazil is running out of storage space for their  record large corn crop with piles being stacked in the countryside. However,   the Brazilian farmer is not selling via low prices with US Gulf corn cheaper this AM than Brazilian offers. 

  Other news is rather mundane with the markets to continue to trading Central US weather. The Pro Farmer Tour next week will help define if the ’17 US soy yield is 50 or 47 BPA or the US corn yield is 170 or less than 165 BPA? ARC’s field surveys argue for a yield on the lower end of the range. No new sales are advised.

** 24 Hour Estimated Midwest Rains;

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